a personal recollection

Gas lines are forming. Grocery store shelves are bare. Breathless weathermen excite the airwaves and news outlets. Another big freeze is coming to Texas, they tell us. Temperatures will begin to plummet this very evening. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain will coat the land, weighing down power lines and tree branches. Power outages are expected. Time to stock up, protect your plants and pets, and hunker down.

Winter Storm Uri

Not since February 11, 2021, have we seen such frothing at the mouth about the weather here in Texas. The storm that hit then lasted 10 days, to February 20. They named it Winter Storm Uri. But we all just call it “The Big Freeze.”

As a result of Uri, for the first time in state history, the governor issued a disaster declaration for all 254 counties in the state. The power grid experienced massive failures statewide. Between February 15 and 18, 4.5 million customers (roughly 10 million people) lost electricity . Areas not accustomed to freezing, like Waco and Austin, experienced six to nine days of temperatures below freezing.

I am in the insurance claims industry, serving both an independent adjusting firm and an adjuster school. So, I am interested in storms from a professional perspective, too.

The statistics from Uri are staggering. It stands as the largest claim event in Texas history…

500,196 total insurance claims.
$10.3 billion total insurance losses.
Residential claims made up 85% of all claims. (This is our primary business, so it was a huge event for us, taxing resources.)
While commercial claims made up just 10% of the claims, the average payout was much higher.
Residential payouts averaged $15,800.
Commercial payouts averaged $126,900.

While insured losses were around $10 billion, the total economic impact was far higher because many losses (like business interruption, food spoilage, and infrastructure damage) were not covered by insurance.

Total Financial Losses: Estimated between $80 billion and $130 billion by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Comparison: Analysts noted the storm’s financial impact rivaled or exceeded that of Hurricane Harvey ($19 billion in insured losses, but Harvey’s damage was geographically concentrated while Uri affected the entire state).

Human and Infrastructure Toll

Death Toll: The official final report from the Texas Department of State Health Services confirmed 246 deaths, though some unofficial excess-death studies suggest the number could be as high as 700.
Causes of Death: Mostly hypothermia, followed by carbon monoxide poisoning (from improper use of generators/grills), and medical equipment failure due to power loss.
Water Disruption: Roughly 49% of Texans experienced disruptions in water service, often due to burst pipes or city-wide water pressure failures.

We had COVID and (almost) Two Dead Dogs

February 14 was romantic. A beautiful snow was falling. We fired up the hot tub and took wine to celebrate what a wonderful world in which to be in love.

But then came February 15. Our heaven froze over and all Hell broke loose. We had both come down with COVID, the temperatures plummeted. I drained the pool filter equipment and covered it as best I could. And then the power went out for over 50 hours. We have a gas fireplace, so I dragged a mattress from upstairs, lay it in front of the fireplace, we each layered on clothing and piled blankets on the bed, and this is where we slept, shivering and fevered. We turned on the stove top burners for an hour at a time. We sat in my pickup and thawed out and charged our phone.

Our fevers broke and then the power was restored. The thermostats in the house read 48°. It was still much colder than that outside, below freezing, in the twenties.

I let out the dogs—a 90-pound St. Berdoodle named Gus and a Chihuahua mix named Cisco. I was upstairs when I heard my startled wife scream my name. I bounded down the stairs and out the back door into the yard where she and the dogs were.

The pool was frozen over and the dogs decided to take a walk on the ice. It was thick enough to hold them until they got near the waterfall on the far side of the pool. Gus’s weight was too much for the thinner ice there and he and Cisco fell through. Gus is a powerful swimmer but Cisco is basically a biscuit with chicken legs. Gus was swimming but the wrong way, away from the shallow end and the steps. He kept trying to pull himself onto the ice atop the pool but it broke each time. Cisco was sinking like a rock. I grabbed the pool net and lay on my stomach, half-immersed in the freezing water, and fished out Cisco. I tossed him to Donya and reached for Gus. I managed to grab a hind leg and pull him toward me. He took the hint, turned, and swam through the ice shards toward the steps.

I still had COVID and now a frozen torso and nearly two dead dogs.

When the temps rose above freezing, a pipe in the garage burst. It only flooded the garage floor, doing no real damage. Being in the business was a boon that day. Wait times for repair crews were days, not hours. But not for me. A friend sent a crew and in a couple of hours, we were back in business with water, heat, lights, and even the COVID was leaving.

Winter Storm Fern

Now Winter Storm Fern is set to invade Texas from the north, where all the worst invasions hail, and is being described by excitable meteorologists as a “potentially catastrophic” event. Heavy ice accumulation is the primary concern.

What the forecasts are telling us (via Google Gemini)

Today (Friday, Jan 23): Rain and fog will transition to freezing rain and sleet starting this evening. Travel impacts are expected to begin around sunset and deteriorate rapidly overnight.
The Weekend (Jan 24–25): Heavy mixed precipitation will continue. For North Texas, we are looking at 1 to 3 inches of sleet and snow, with 0.25 to 0.5 inches of ice accumulation.
Deep Freeze: Temperatures are expected to stay below freezing from tonight through Tuesday morning. North Texas could endure nearly 100 consecutive hours of sub-freezing temperatures.

Specific Expectations for Texas (Google Gemini)

Ice Accumulation: The “Piney Woods” and Brazos Valley regions are at the highest risk for significant ice. Even a half-inch of ice is enough to down power lines and tree branches, leading to power outages.
Extreme Cold: An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for North and Central Texas. Wind chills are projected to drop as low as -12°F (and as low as -15°F in the Panhandle) on Saturday and Sunday.
State Response: Governor Greg Abbott declared a state of emergency on Wednesday, January 21, to mobilize resources like the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) and TxDOT, which is already pretreating major highways with brine.

Current Impacts (Google Gemini)

Cancellations: Most school districts (including Dallas ISD) have canceled all after-school and weekend activities. Major events, like the Texas Rangers Fan Fest and the DeSoto state championship parade, have been postponed or canceled.
Travel: Authorities are strongly advising people to stay off the roads starting tonight. Anything that melts during the day on Monday will likely re-freeze Monday night, making Tuesday morning’s commute hazardous as well.

So, there you have it—a weather report and a recollection from a weathered friend. Button up, hunker down, and stay safe.